Can West help Yunus deal with Rohingya crisis?

Muhammad Yunus, the head of Bangladesh's interim government, has called for an accelerated resettlement of Rohingya refugees to third countries as civil war rages in neighboring Myanmar.

Bangladesh currently hosts nearly one million Rohingya, though some estimates put the number even higher.

Rohingya are a Muslim minority group in Myanmar, and many of them fled the country following military-led violence in 2017. Another wave of migration occurred after the military coup in Myanmar in early 2021.

In recent months, an additional 8,000 Rohingya have reportedly crossed the border into Bangladesh to escape violence committed by both the military and anti-junta forces.

West backs new government

Nobel laureate Yunus, an internationally renowned economist and microfinance pioneer, took over as head of Bangladesh's interim government following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina’s government.

With strong ties to Western governments and the international donor community, Yunus took office last month, promising reforms and increased international engagement.

However, it is not yet clear if his government will improve upon the previous regime's handling of the Rohingya crisis.

"It is too early to tell whether the new government will do better than the previous regime regarding the Rohingya question," Tazreena Sajjad, senior professorial lecturer at American University in Washington, DC, told DW.

Repatriation with ‘safety, dignity, and full rights’

In his first policy address in mid-August, Yunus reaffirmed Bangladesh's commitment to supporting Rohingya refugees.

"We need sustained international efforts for Rohingya humanitarian operations and their eventual repatriation to Myanmar, with safety, dignity, and full rights," he said.

In September, Yunus urged global partners, including the UN's International Organization for Migration (IOM), to provide more aid to support the refugees. He also called on international organizations to expedite the resettlement process for the Rohingya.

Conditions for return ‘just not there’

The EU has voiced support for Yunus' administration. The bloc has also allocated around €35 million for humanitarian assistance to Bangladesh for 2024.

In September, the EU released €5 million in humanitarian aid to for flood victims in Bangladesh, including the Rohingya living in refugee camps.

"For the EU, it is important that we keep the focus on the Rohingya, especially during this critical political transition in Bangladesh," an EU spokesperson told DW.

The spokesperson commended Bangladesh for its generosity in hosting over one million Rohingya and welcomed Yunus' commitment to maintaining that support.

However, Brussels still believes that any long-term solution must include improving conditions in Myanmar, which would then allow for the safe and voluntary return of the Rohingya.

But a European diplomatic source, speaking anonymously, expressed skepticism about the prospects for large-scale repatriation.

"The conditions for a conspicuous repatriation of Rohingya are just not there, and it is unlikely they will be in the foreseeable future," the source said.

Arakan Army, junta forces both blamed for targeting Rohingya

Civil war is still raging in Myanmar, and even before the 2021 coup, Rohingya were largely denied citizenship and other basic rights.

According to the diplomatic source, one way forward would be for Bangladesh to engage with the Arakan Army (AA), one of the most prominent ethnic militias that controls much of Rakhine State bordering Bangladesh.

Last month, Human Rights Watch (HRW) accused both Myanmar junta forces and the Arakan Army of committing extrajudicial killings and widespread arson against Rohingya.

"Both sides are using hate speech, attacks on civilians, and massive arson to drive people from their homes and villages, raising the specter of ethnic cleansing," said Elaine Pearson, Asia Director at Human Rights Watch, in a statement.

Myanmar rebels expected to stay in control

Earlier this month, Foreign Adviser Mohammad Touhid Hossain called on the international community to increase pressure on the Arakan Army to cease attacks on Rohingya in Rakhine.

Even so, improved Bangladeshi cooperation with the Arakan Army could help secure the safety of Rohingya on both sides of the border and promote cross-border trade, a vital economic lifeline for people living under the militia's control.

Kristina Kironska, a Bratislava-based academic specializing in Myanmar, told DW that the Arakan Army will likely maintain control over the region in most post-coup scenarios. This makes it "very worthwhile" for Dhaka to negotiate with them, she said.

US agrees to take in Rohingya, but numbers low

While most Rohingya flee to Bangladesh, hundreds of thousands of them have also found safety elsewhere. Many Rohingya have also attempted to flee Bangladesh by sea, often facing perilous journeys to Southeast Asia.

India, Malaysia, and Thailand have together accepted approximately 345,000 Rohingya, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

The United States agreed to take in some Rohingya in 2022, but recent estimates suggest the number of refugees accepted remains limited, likely only in the hundreds.

Yunus is expected to attend the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York this month, where he will have a prominent platform to appeal for global support in resettling more Rohingya and providing additional aid to Bangladesh.

A promising area for engagement is with Malaysia, which will assume the rotating chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) in 2025.

Low chances of Rohingya going to Europe

Bangladesh hopes Malaysia's leadership within Asean will help strengthen trade and investment ties and encourage further support from regional members on the Rohingya crisis.

Significant resettlement in Europe is very unlikely, analysts say, and the majority of European assistance will remain directed at financially supporting Bangladesh to assist the refugees.

US-based lecturer Sajjad also told DW that resettling large numbers of refugees in third countries, such as in the EU, remains a slow and selective process.

And despite Dhaka's interim government pushing for third-country resettlement, most agree that the only real solution to this crisis is repatriation to Myanmar, even though this is not possible at the moment.

"The Rohingya demand citizenship, the return of their property, protection from persecution, and the right to return when conditions are safe enough for them to do so voluntarily," Sajjad said.