Election in London’s ‘Banglatown’: What are the last-minute calculations?

Tower Hamlets in East London is a rapidly developing borough. Within this economically significant council area, there are two constituencies predominantly inhabited by Bangalis — Bethnal Green and Bow and Poplar and Limehouse.

Currently, these two seats are represented by two women of Bangladeshi descent, Rushanara Ali and Apsana Begum. On Thursday, besides Rushanara and Apsana, several other candidates are also taking part in Britain’s general election.

According to sources, the support of the Bangali mayor of Tower Hamlets, Lutfur Rahman, is a crucial factor in these two constituencies.

However, he is playing a silent role in this regard. All in all, various calculations have intensified the final moments of the election field.

So far, party-wise, all election-related polls in Britain indicate that the current opposition party, the Labour Party, is leading in the race to come to power in the upcoming election.

Until recently, the two Labour candidates, Rushanara Ali and Apsana Begum, were quite confident about their victory in these two seats.

However, recently, during an election debate on a television show, Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer unexpectedly mentioned Bangladesh. He said: "If we come to power, those who do not have valid documents from countries like Bangladesh will be sent back to their own countries."

This has caused quite a stir, and as expected, there has been a strong reaction in Tower Hamlets. British-Bangladeshis have been protesting this unwarranted statement by holding meetings and gatherings.

Even in the protest gatherings, there was tension among supporters of the two candidates of Bangladeshi descent.

Although Starmer repeatedly apologized for his statement under pressure, and eventually his party provided an explanation, which has somewhat assuaged the anger of the Bangladeshis.

Palestine issue

Moreover, the issue of Palestine has also heightened anti-Labour sentiment among general voters in Tower Hamlets more than ever before.

Many are considering this as a factor in their vote calculations.

Leveraging the issue of Palestine, the Labour candidate of Bethnal Green and Bow, Rushanara Ali, who has been an MP for 14 years, is being challenged in this safe Labour seat by Rabina Khan, the Liberal Democrat candidate claiming to be pro-Palestine, and independent candidate Ajmal Masroor.

Additionally, there are some allegations against Rushanara Ali of not being in touch with voters after the election and not participating in community events outside election seasons.

Among the two Bangladeshi descent candidates against her, Rabina Khan contested for the mayoral position of Tower Hamlets in 2015 with the support of Lutfur Rahman but lost by a small margin (Lutfur Rahman could not contest that year due to an election tribunal ban).

Independent candidate Ajmal Masroor is using Lutfur Rahman's picture on his posters. Therefore, Lutfur Rahman, who has been elected mayor three times, has become the single most important factor in this seat.

Lutfur Rahman’s influence

Lutfur Rahman grew up in Tower Hamlets. This locally popular politician identifies himself as a boy from this area. His political career began with the Labour Party.

At one time, he became quite important within the local Labour Party and was seen as a promising emerging star.

He received the Labour Party's nomination for the mayoral position of Tower Hamlets in 2010, but later the party withdrew his nomination.

He then contested as a rebel candidate from an independent platform and won.

In 2014, he was re-elected as mayor. Shortly after, due to allegations of election fraud and various irregularities in council management, he was removed from the mayoral position in 2015.

The election tribunal banned him for five years. To everyone's surprise, he won the 2022 council election with a huge margin and was re-elected as mayor.

In the meantime, he has also formed a party called the Aspire Party.

Bethnal Green and Bow

Some supporters of Lutfur Rahman are openly working with both Ajmal and Rabina. These two candidates' supporters are telling general voters that the mayor's silent support is with them.

Therefore, whether the mayor will express his support or remain silent for strategic reasons will somewhat depend on the election results.

However, the Aspire Party has accused Ajmal Masroor of using Mayor Lutfur Rahman's picture without permission in his election leaflet.

The party's chairman, Abu Taher Chowdhury, made an official statement making such allegations and urged the removal of the mayor's picture published without permission from the election leaflet.

When asked about this, Ajmal Masroor said: "I have nowhere mentioned in my leaflet that the mayor or his party has supported me."

Liberal Democrat candidate Rabina Khan said that it has been officially confirmed that Mayor Lutfur Rahman has not supported Ajmal Masroor in Thursday's vote.

Rushanara Ali’s chances

Political analysts say that by not supporting either of the two (Rabina and Ajmal), Lutfur Rahman and his party are giving an unusual advantage to Rushanara Ali.

Besides, it is rumored that if the Labour Party comes to power and Rushanara Ali wins in Bethnal Green and Bow, she might secure a position in the British cabinet.

Born in the village of Bhurki in Bishwanath, Sylhet, 49-year-old Rushanara came to London with her parents in her childhood.

The prospect of this Bangladeshi-born MP, who has maintained her dominance in the constituency for four consecutive terms, becoming a minister has already added a positive dimension among Bangladeshi voters.

Overall, Rushanara Ali is significantly ahead in terms of the likelihood of victory.

Poplar and Limehouse

In the other parliamentary seat within Tower Hamlets, Poplar and Limehouse, Labour Party candidate Apsana Begum is contesting.

There are a total of eight candidates, including Apsana's ex-husband Ehteshamul Haque as an independent candidate.

In this seat, many of Lutfur Rahman's numerous supporters are openly active in support of the Labour candidate Apsana Begum on various issues, including Palestine.

She is quite confident of victory in this seat.

When asked if he is openly or silently supporting anyone in the two seats of his electoral area or to whom he will give his vote, Tower Hamlets Mayor Lutfur Rahman declined to comment.

It is noteworthy that nearly 98 political parties, big and small, are participating in the upcoming elections in the UK.

A record number of 4,515 candidates, including party and independent candidates, are contesting for 650 seats in the House of Commons.

Among them, 34 candidates of Bangladeshi descent are competing in various parties and as independent candidates in the July 4 general election.

Of them, six female candidates nominated by the Labour Party are ahead in terms of prospects of victory.