NDA close to 300, INDIA defies predictions

The counting of votes for the Lok Sabha polls, which will decide if Prime Minister Narendra Modi makes a comeback or a resurgent Opposition steals the show, has begun. Three hours on, NDA is past the majority mark, but INDIA is fighting strongly.

Here are the Top 10 points in this big story:

1. The big surprise is Uttar Pradesh, where most exit polls had predicted an edge for BJP. Around 11 am, the INDIA bloc comprising Samajwadi Party and INDIA holds a slender lead over NDA in an epic neck and neck fight.

2. Among other battleground states, the BJP is trailing in West Bengal and Maharashtra. These are, however, early trends and many rounds of counting are left.

3. Voting was held for 543 Lok Sabha seats over seven phases, which ended on Saturday. The majority mark is 272.

4. The counting of votes for assembly elections in two states, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, is also taking place today. In Andhra Pradesh, the Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP is leading three hours into counting. In Odisha, BJP has taken a lead over the ruling BJD.

5. The BJP hopes to make big gains in Bengal, Odisha and the southern states, to offset any loss it may suffer in the north, where it is the dominant party. Other key battleground states are Maharashtra, Odisha, Karnataka, and Telangana.

6. The campaign has been intense and drawn out, and the mood of the voters difficult to read in this election. Three exit polls have predicted a 400-plus score for the BJP-led NDA. The rest differ only in the margin of the NDA victory -- conclusions the Opposition has trashed. Exit polls have always had mixed success in the country.

7. As with every election, the BJP unleashed its formidable election machinery early, and launched a star-studded campaign that focussed on development, economy and a vision for the 100-year anniversary of Independence. Backing it up were the promises met -- the scrapping of Article 370 and the construction of the Ayodhya Ram temple.

8. The big difference was the Opposition's offensive against the ruling coalition, a long way from the lack of cohesiveness of 2019. While the beginning was shaky and in parts, patchy -- like the Congress versus Trinamool contest in Bengal and Congress versus AAP in Punjab -- the narrative on a change in constitution and scrapping of reservation made an impact.

9. Compared to 2019, the line-ups of the two sides have also changed, Maharashtra being the epicentre of the shake-up. NDA ally Shiv Sena walked out of the alliance and joined the Opposition ranks, splitting a few years later. Maharashtra powerhouse Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), split too and the Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar factions became part of the NDA.

10. The election is being held in the shadow of allegations about the Central investigative agencies being used to target key leaders of the Opposition. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, arrested in the liquor policy case and out to campaign on interim bail, returned to jail yesterday.