Canada Conservative likely to unseat Trudeau has Trump-like tendencies

The more Justin Trudeau falters, the more Pierre Poilievre presses forward: the Canadian prime minister's main conservative rival's antics, reminiscent of US President-elect Donald Trump, are a bit of a shock on Canada's normally polite political stage.

The Tory leader is not known for pulling his punches. He has called Montreal Mayor Valerie Plante "incompetent," New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh a "sellout" and Justin Trudeau "weak" and a "wacko."

The latter insult saw him kicked out in April of the House of Commons, where debates are usually staid but have become more tense and animated of late.

Like the US president-elect, Poilievre is also a fan of short catchy phrases to encapsulate his political messages: "Axe the tax" in reference to a federal carbon tax, or "Justinflation" -- a portmanteau to blame the prime minister for inflation.

Much like Trump, he also likes to describe himself as a victim of mistreatment by elites and traditional media.

He also has low support among women, another similarity with Trump.

In 2022, when he fought for the leadership of the country's main opposition Conservatives, the career politician with 20 years of experience was nonetheless seen as an outsider, but drew large crowds at his rallies.

Born in Calgary, Poilievre was raised by an adoptive family. He developed a passion for politics at an early age and won a prize during his university studies for an essay on what he would do if he were prime minister.

With polls showing he is likely to defeat Trudeau in the next election, he promises to put "Canada first!" -- a slogan akin to Trump's own "America first!"

At a news conference Tuesday, he said in French and English that he had "a plan to unleash the productive forces of our workers and entrepreneurs to bring home our money and defend our economy and to take back control of our borders, immigration, spending and everything else."

He also called Trudeau "pathetic" and "weak" after his Liberal government was plunged into turmoil by the surprise resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland this week.

- Banking on anger -

"Pierre Poilievre's message is much more polarizing. He banks more on anger, which is new in Canada," University of Ottawa politics professor Genevieve Tellier told AFP, describing him as having the qualities of a pit bull.

It is all about "building a base," she explained.

According to ballot tracking conducted by Nanos Research and released Tuesday, Poilievre's Conservatives are ahead of Trudeau's Liberals by 20 points, 43 to 23 percent.

That is enough to form a majority government after the next election, expected by October 2025.

For Felix Mathieu, a politics professor at the University of Winnipeg, "the parallels between Mr Poilievre and Mr Trump are growing."

"Like Mr Trump, he does not necessarily seek to rely on rational discourse, he relies on slogans, and he seeks to generate popular fervor more than support for ideas."

Representing the right wing in the western part of the country and strongly influenced by US conservatives, he has not hesitated in the past to share links to false information on social media if it bolsters his position.

In 2022, he supported a truckers' lockdown of the capital Ottawa over their opposition to vaccine mandates and other protocols aimed at containing the spread of Covid-19.

Recently, he shared on social media platform X a petition that rails against an alleged government plan to impose a "global woke program" on Canadians aimed at making everyone eat insects.

No such program exists.

That move was a way for the party to collect the contact information of possible supporters, but also to exploit Canadians' exasperation with the political status quo, Mathieu said.

Analysts, however, point out that Poilievre often seeks to stand apart from Trump and presents himself as less extreme.

He rejects comparisons with Trump and promises to be "a leader who has the brains and backbone" when he faces a US president-elect who is threatening to impose 25-percent tariffs on Canadian imports.