Shocked West mulls dilemma posed by Syria's new leaders

Western governments are "quietly optimistic" about the sudden transition in Syria, but the militant past of its new Islamist leaders has left foreign capitals scrambling for a strategy and anxious about the future, analysts say.

Leaders of the G7 countries will weigh whether to support the transitional government of Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which spearheaded the ouster of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, at a virtual meeting on Friday.

That backing will be dependent on the group -- outlawed as a terror organisation by many governments -- respecting the rule of law and protecting religious and ethnic minorities in the country.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has called Assad's departure a "turning point for Syria".

Urban Coningham, a research fellow at defence and security think tank RUSI, said that reflected a "quietly optimistic" mood in Western capitals.

"There is a feeling that this is a good moment of opportunity," he told AFP.

However, the "dramatic transformation has provoked welcome shock but also deep uncertainty" among European leaders, explained Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Michael Roth, chair of the German parliament's foreign affairs committee, told television channel ZDF that "at the head (of the country) are also Islamist groups. I don't trust them. They currently present themselves as moderate, but will that last?"

The most pressing concerns are whether the new leaders will keep chemical arms out of the hands of Islamic State group jihadists and prevent reprisal attacks by other rebel fighters.

- Prepare for 'inclusive process' -

The longer-term issues relate to HTS's roots in Syria's Al-Qaeda branch, meaning they are designated as a terror group by the United Nations, United Kingdom and United States.

HTS broke ties with Al-Qaeda in 2016, but doubts linger about whether the country's Shiite and Christian minorities will face persecution, and fears that the takeover could come to resemble the Taliban authorities in Afghanistan, which have imposed a strict interpretation of Islamic law, or sharia.
"In the past, we've always thought what comes next is necessarily better. That hasn't turned out to be the case," warned Starmer on Wednesday.

Middle East expert Bader Mousa al-Saif, of the UK-based Chatham House think tank, said the fact Christians had not been persecuted after the takeover of Aleppo was encouraging.

"We need to see HTS... prove that they are moderating as they claim to be. The verdict is still not out. We have to watch and see," he told AFP.

The rebels have appointed Mohammad al-Bashir as the transitional head of government. He sought to reassure the global community that he would heed their demands for an "inclusive" government.

"Precisely because we are Islamic, we will guarantee the rights of all people and all sects in Syria," he told Italian daily Corriere della Sera.

Barnes-Dacey said Europeans "may doubt these commitments" and "need to approach the situation with considerable modesty and caution".

He called for "an energised, UN-supported process that may... be the only means of drawing together various internal and external players".

UN envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen told AFP the initial signals were the transitional authorities "understood that they need to prepare for a more inclusive process".

As the confusion begins to lift, there appears to be growing consensus that a multilateral approach is needed.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday jointly agreed to cooperate with HTS.

And many nations, including key regional actor Qatar, are calling for the transition government to follow the peace process map outlined in a 2015 UN resolution.

The world body will consider taking HTS off its designated terrorist list if it forms an inclusive government, a senior official told the Guardian newspaper.

- 'Indirect channels' -

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was heading on a tour of the Middle East Wednesday, has called for a "credible, inclusive and non-sectarian" government to replace Assad, a secular-minded member of the minority Alawite sect.

Individual countries however still have bilateral concerns that need to be addressed, such as Washington's deployment of troops in Syria.

The UK and US must also decide whether to continue their designations of HTS as a terror group.

While the designation means London cannot officially engage with the rebels, Coningham said "the UK and US will have talked to HTS."

Some European countries have also "built indirect channels of communication with HTS," a European diplomatic source told AFP.

Domestic interests add to the complications for European governments, under pressure from voters to crack down on immigration.

Austria has already announced that it wants to deport refugees who fled the civil war back to Syria.

But for the UK, "it's very difficult... to start sending back Syrian refugees... to a government which they've designated as a terrorist organisation," said Coningham.