Japan, South Korea and U.S. unveil new initiatives to cement defense ties

The defense chiefs of Japan, the United States and South Korea used a meeting at Asia’s top regional security conference to announce a series of new initiatives that will help formalize their burgeoning trilateral defense cooperation.

At a gathering on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Defense Minister Minoru Kihara, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and South Korean defense chief Shin Won-sik agreed to develop a framework to institutionalize trilateral cooperation within the year.

The push comes as fears grow over possible lapses in U.S. commitment to the region should former U.S. President Donald Trump be reelected in November. There are also concerns that political changes in Seoul and Tokyo could scuttle the hard-fought cooperative agreements already reached.

“Domestic politics seem to be the main driver of the timeline,” said Sebastian Maslow, an international relations expert and associate professor at the University of Tokyo, arguing that all three parties are trying to lock in the progress made to keep the alliance network as resilient as possible in the face of potential changes in the White House.

At the same time, officials in all three countries have likely realized that a window of opportunity has opened “that does not come along often,” thus compelling them to act quickly, a former U.S.-Japan alliance manager said on condition of anonymity.

The new framework will include senior-level policy consultations, information sharing, trilateral exercises and defense exchange cooperation, the top defense officials said in a joint statement, adding that they will also rotate hosting a number of trilateral high-level meetings starting this year.

Several of the other initiatives relate to joint military drills, including the launch of the first iteration of the multidomain Freedom Edge exercise slated for this summer.

Asked about the different domains the exercise would be conducted in, a senior Japanese defense official told reporters that a number of fields are possible, including land, sea, air and cyber, but that no final decision had been made.

Another new element will be a trilateral tabletop exercise designed to assess how the three countries could work together to deter and respond to various threats both on the Korean Peninsula and the broader region amid concerns over the growing possibility of simultaneous crises in the Indo-Pacific region.

The trilateral exercises will be carried out in accordance with a multiyear plan established last year.

"We are still working on the specific form of institutionalization,” Kihara told reporters after the hourlong meeting, noting that the aim is to ensure the “continued implementation” of policy discussions and joint training activities that have previously only taken place on an ad hoc basis.

The aim, experts say, is to formalize these joint activities as quickly as possible and ingrain it in the fabric of how each country’s national security establishments do business, thereby raising the cost of rolling back current gains.

The three defense chiefs also condemned North Korea’s recent flurry of ballistic missile launches, including an 18-missile salvo on Thursday in what appeared to be a rehearsal for so-called saturation strikes aimed at overwhelming enemy air defenses. That barrage came just days after Pyongyang’s failed attempt to put a second spy satellite into orbit.

In a signal of the three countries’ growing convergence on the issue of Chinese aggression, the defense chiefs also singled out China by name in their joint statement, criticizing its “dangerous and aggressive behavior” in the disputed South China Sea.

This, experts say, indicates how the administration of President Yoon Suk-yeol is aligning South Korea's national security strategy with that of the U.S. and Japan.

“In the past, both Japan and South Korea were more risk averse when calibrating their foreign policies toward China, avoiding frictions that could damage their trade relations with Beijing,” said Maslow, noting that these positions have shifted in recent years, with policymakers in both Seoul and Tokyo showing greater willingness to defend their national interests vis-a-vis Beijing.

The former alliance manager took a similar view, arguing that China's response to South Korea’s deployment of the U.S. THAAD air-defense system and its continued unhelpfulness in keeping North Korea in check means that the Yoon administration sees little benefit in tiptoeing around Beijing.

“There are of course important considerations in dealing with the regional neighbor, but the current administration is willing to vocalize stronger positions,” he said.

It is yet to be seen, however, if this will translate into Seoul taking action on specific U.S.— and Japan-backed initiatives meant to curb Chinese ambitions.

Indeed, Maslow pointed out that last week's trilateral summit between the leaders of Japan, China and South Korea also showed that Tokyo and Seoul remain wary of jeopardizing regional stability by isolating Beijing.

The new trilateral initiatives highlight the astonishingly fast progress the countries have made in expanding defense cooperation.

Underpinning the rapprochement has been a trilateral pact reached at August’s Camp David summit in the United States that laid the foundation for future defense initiatives.

The number of joint defense activities has been growing since.

In late October, for instance, the countries held their first-ever trilateral aerial exercise. This was followed in early November by an agreement to launch high-level consultations on how to counter North Korean cyberactivities.

And before the end of last year, they agreed to start sharing real-time missile-warning data to better detect and assess Pyongyang’s missile launches. This data-sharing mechanism is now set to be further optimized by the end of this year to ensure the ability to not only deter, but also counter provocations, according to the joint statement.

Indeed, North Korea’s growing missile and nuclear arsenal has been a key driver of trilateral and bilateral rapprochement.

While the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has traditionally sought to drive wedges between the three countries, its belligerent rhetoric and repeated weapons tests have instead pushed Seoul and Tokyo closer, helping make both sides more willing to put aside long-standing political differences — at least for now — to focus on mutual security concerns.

A significant step in this direction was taken Saturday, when Shin and Kihara agreed in a separate meeting to resume defense exchanges and take measures to prevent a repeat of a 2018 incident that saw a South Korean warship direct its fire-control radar at a Maritime Self-Defense Force patrol plane.

Austin hailed the move, saying that “stronger bilateral cooperation between each of our countries helps advance trilateral cooperation among all of our countries.”

Many view the growing momentum in trilateral security as signaling a "new era" in the three-way partnership. Others, however, have questioned whether the current political drive can hold or whether this is merely another swing of the pendulum for defense cooperation.

Relations between Japan and South Korea have had their peaks and valleys, including periods of progress that have been swiftly reversed after changes in the countries’ security or political environment.

But to reduce the risk of another reversal, Washington, Seoul and Tokyo are now working to quickly formalize three-way defense cooperation.

Analysts say the current conditions are right for advancing bilateral and trilateral cooperation, with progress likely to depend on the speed and extent to which the partnership can be formalized.

“Building security partnerships is necessarily an iterative approach that focuses on achieving one goal at a time,” the former alliance manager said.

“While that may seem clunky to outside observers, the alternative of simply pushing for a flurry of activities can be counterproductive, as more is in this case not necessarily better.”

Rather, he said, “focusing on cooperation that institutionalizes meaningful roles, missions, and capabilities will be the biggest determinant for how far they can go.”

Preceding Sunday’s three-way talks was a meeting between Austin and Kihara in which the two sides discussed strategic initiatives to strengthen both the deterrence and response capabilities within the U.S.-Japan alliance.

The top officials discussed the planned restructuring and expansion of the functions of the U.S. military command in Japan as well as efforts to bolster defense-industrial cooperation. U.S. President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had agreed to both measures during an April summit in Washington.

Among other things, the allied defense chiefs plan to convene a forum on defense industrial cooperation, acquisition and sustainment to identify priority areas for partnering U.S. and Japanese industry, including the codevelopment and coproduction of missiles and cosustainment of forward-deployed U.S. Navy ships and U.S. Air Force aircraft at Japanese commercial facilities.